On the beach? Advantage or Disadvantage
Quick look at the last 4 seasons to see if it's an advantage to be playing teams who are 'on the beach'.
Like many football fans in the Championship, I’ve been pouring through the fixtures, totting up the numbers, and trying to work out where we’ll finish.
A look at Coventry fixtures shows:
6 games against those embroiled in a relegation scrap.
3 battling it out for automatics
2 against those in the play-off hunt
That meant no scheduled games against teams who have got nothing to play for, or are ‘on the beach’
So the question - is this an advantage or disadvantage? My gut was disadvantage, surely its easier playing teams with nothing to play for, although the odd team might improve for playing under no pressure.
I had a quick at the numbers from the last four completed seasons, and decided that a team 7 pts or more away from both the relegation zone and the play-offs, with 10 games to go, should be considered ‘on the beach’.
Portsmouth currently fit that narrative, although there’s 11 games to go. So the Sky Blues might have one game against a side OTB. (Millwall, Sheff Wed, QPR, PNE, Swansea and Oxford all currently have that 7+ gap in both directions)
7 pts seems to work, no side has been relegated (Derby came closest 2020/21) or made the play-offs with that gap.
So here are the numbers (there’s some slight deviations where teams have games in hand, and I excluded a Reading side that had pts deducted)
It gives us a data pool of 30 teams.
There is a slight drop off in terms of PPG for those considered OTB. 1.25 to 1.23, so very marginal (1.6%).
What’s interesting though, is that 19 of those 30 (63.33%) teams got worse whilst OTB, with their PPG going down.
The data is skewed by M’Boro (+0.66 ppg), Swansea (+1.11) & QPR (+0.69) and Bristol (-1.03) & Derby (-0.58) all deviating strongly from their PPG after 36 games.
There can be massive swings, in 2022/23, Swansea took 23pts from their last 10, getting within 3pts of the play-offs having been 14 adrift with 10 to go (Oxford are 14 adrift currently).
In 2020/2021 Bristol City were 12th, going along at 1.33 ppg, and only managed 3 from their last 30 available.
A very marginal disadvantage for the Sky Blues then. A long way to go, and a lot can happen. Based on current PPG, 69 pts would be enough, thats 16 from 11 (1.45ppg). Under Frank we’re precisely 2ppg, if you continue that, you’ll be on 75pts and would cruise into the play-offs.
Let’s get through Stoke 1st.
#PUSB