Permutations / M'Boro / Credit to FL
Lots of talk of 'must win' games........and we still don't have one
Permutations
The fantastic graphic below (Credit: skybluesblog on X) is the quickest and easiest reference for Saturdays 12.30 kick-offs.
I thought I’d apply some probability to the above sequences, using odds taken from Sky Bet. (*note some of the totals don’t equate to 100% as there is some margins in it for the bookies.)
Coventry to win are evens favourite. 50% chance. If the Sky Blues win they make the play offs. Bristol City have a 57% chance of victory. Giving Coventry a 21.5% chance of finishing 5th and 28.5% chance of finishing 6th, if they win Saturday.
Coventry to draw are 27.8%. If Bristol win or draw, 77.8%, and Millwall lose, 81.8% and Blackburn lose 66.7%, Coventry make the play offs in 6th place. 11.8% chance of Cov making playoffs.
Coventry to draw are 27.8%. Bristol to lose are 22.2%. If Bristol City lose, both Blackburn and Millwall would have to win to prevent the Sky Blues making the play-offs, a 93.9% chance this doesn’t happen. 5.95% chance of this happening. To go ahead of Coventry into 5th in this scenario, Millwall would need to win 18.2% (1.15% chance) or Blackburn win 33.3% (2.11% chance). For Cov to finish 5th, neither Blackburn or Millwall could win (6%).
If you add this up, 50+11.8+5.95= 67.75% of making the play-offs
21.5+6= 27.5% of finishing 5th
28.5+11.8+1.15+2.11= 43.6% of finishing 6th.
With a 67.75% of making the play-offs, and then an approx 17.5% chance of us making it out of the play-offs (Sheffield United are significantly better than us, Sunderland probably are too, but are totally out of form), our chances orf promotion are just under 12%, approx 8/1.
Middlesbrough
All is not well up at the Riverside. They are not a happy camp and have also have injuries, Doak, Lenihan, Ayling and Dieng are out. Edmundson & Borges are back on the bench after spells out.
After a good start, things have faltered. Across the last 20 games, they’re only 13th in the form table (24pts), Coventry would be 4th (37pts).
Recent trends are not good either, loses on the road to Millwall and Sheffield Wednesday (who are in awful form), they lost the xG battle in both too. A very even 0-0 at home to Norwich team who have already checked out, and it took a 93rd minute winner to beat Plymouth (and Argyle had plenty of chances) at home.
There’s plenty of holes to punch in Coventry’s recent form too, but the home form has remained rock solid. 10 wins, 1 draw (Millwall) and 2 defeats (Burnley and Leeds) in their last 13 at home. The Sky Blues have injuries too, Torp, Bassette and Dovin for the season. Dasilva suspended. One must hope MVE and Thomas have made it back.
‘Boro are also 7 without a win against the Sky Blues, with Coventry scoring 3 goals in each of the last 3 games. Carrick is likely to come under pressure if ‘Boro can’t find a way in to the top 6 on Saturday.
Lampard:
Whatever happens on Saturday, it’s worth pointing out what an excellent job FL has done so far. It’s easy to forget that we were only 2 pts ahead of the drop zone and 10 pts off the play-offs when he was appointed.
Since his appointment we sit 4th in the form table, a real turnaround, albeit the data suggested things would have turned under Robins too.
I wrote an article suggesting there was no need for panic loans or signings in January as the season was already done. Grimes has been a key cog. Doug King must take credit for both the FL appointment and the Grimes signing. Again it’s easy to forget just how much stick he got for sacking Robins.
FL has made an excellent start with a flawed but talented squad. It’s not until Feb/March next season, when’s had the opportunity to work through a couple of transfer windows, that we should be making real views of his performance.
A massive game awaits on Saturday. We must be that 12th man. And we must back players that we might not necessarily be big fans of. Simms whilst inconsistent can blow hot, Collins is erratic but was a cornerstone of the side that went marching up the table last season. The dream doesn’t happen unless these guys perform.
#PUSB