Ellis Simms - The Enigma

Deep dive into the numbers behind the 24 yr old, who had such a dissapointing 24/25 season.

Ellis Simms bagged 17 goals and 4 assists in the 2nd half on the 23/24 season. There was some speculation that bigger fish may come calling.

In 24/25 that became 7 goals and 2 assists across the whole season. With the much maligned striker trusted with precisely zero minutes across the two Sunderland Play-Off semi-finals.

Is that spell in the 1st half of 2024 just a hot streak? is there something else at play? what now?

The graphic below is a fairly crude way to compare his two seasons in Sky Blue. But it does tell a story.

In terms of goal threat, his numbers were basically identical. 0.39 (vs 0.38)xG per 90, that’ll put you in the top 3rd of Championship strikers.

Conversion has been a big issue this season. 0.39xG converted into 0.24 goals per game. Last season reads 0.43 per goal. His shots total per 90 value has barely changed and his shots on target percentage has barely changed.

His finishing has changed. 17 big chances missed this time around, with just 8 last season. With a noticeable amount of shots being high and hard, maybe indicating a lack of confidence.

When the goals are not coming, you need a number 9 who can thrive in other areas. Coventry’s style of play has changed, less in transition, more in possession. That means Simms is receiving less progressive passes, and therefore completing less passes and carries. He’s doing better as a Target Man, he’s winning twice as many headers per 90, and at a higher success rate. You’ll notice on the heat map below, more involvement further away from goal and more around the 6 yard box (on the left) and less on and around the edge of the box.

So when the goals are not coming, and you’re less involved because of style of play changes, you really need to put in a big shift out of possession.

Sadly that is an area where the Oldham born striker really struggles. Making the least defensive contributions for a striker in the league. I don’t think its down to a lack of effort, he’s a big guy, although he’s quick when he gets going, his acceleration and change of direction are not great, that’s not a great profile for harassing defenders.

There are some more charts below for your perusal. They basically show a striker, who’s getting a good amount of touches in the right area, is shooting from close to the goal, but isn’t converting.

So what now?

There are clearly shortcomings. He lacks the technical skill to be a link-up player in a team that dominate the ball, although he’s improved as a target-man type. Without as much transition type football, he’s not going to get the space to get up to speed and carry the ball like we know he can, and run the channels. And he isn’t going to contribute out of possession.

What he does do, is get in the right position to score goals. His xG numbers per 90 vs goal scored by season:

Hearts: 0.54 xG vs 0.4 goals

Sunderland: 0.39xG vs 0.56 goals

Cov 23/24: 0.38 xG vs 0.43 goals

Cov 24/25: 0.39xG vs 0.24 goals

There is enough data there to show you he’ll keep getting chances, and this is the time he’s dropped below 0.4 goals per game. You’d expect the goals to return, we know, when confident, he can be a good finisher.

The zero minutes across the play-offs was a big reg-flag. Lampard’s confidence in him was diminished. In this system, Simms becomes a poacher who offers very little else. Simms will always score goals though, don’t be surprised to see him move and pop up with a lot of goals, that doesn’t make it the wrong move to try and sell him. If they can recoup close to all the money, they should try to shift him, and look at some of the options below:

#PUSB